Trump vs Biden: who is leading the 2020 US election polls?

Electoral college votes

A chart made with Visual Vocabulary Components from the Financial Times visual and data journalism team.287Joe BidenDEMOCRAT136Donald TrumpREPUBLICAN270 to win2117611536100

Leaning Dem

Leaning Rep

Toss-up (115)
A chart made with Visual Vocabulary Components from the Financial Times visual and data journalism team.Texas38Penn20Ohio18NCar15Ariz11Ark6Iowa6Neb-21
States where the difference in poll numbers between Biden and Trump is less than 5 percentage points are classified as ‘toss-up’ states.
A chart made with Visual Vocabulary Components from the Financial Times visual and data journalism team.How Biden and Trump are pollingin the closest statesAverage poll margin in percentage points42024Biden leadsTrump leadsTexasArkansasIowaNorth CarolinaOhioPennsylvaniaArizonaKeyBar height showsnumber of electoralcollege votesIncludes states with more than one recent poll

Methodology

The FT poll tracker is based on data from Real Clear Politics. We calculate poll averages for Biden and Trump in each state using an exponential decay formula, which gives more weight to recent polls. We then use these averages to determine whether a state is ‘solid’, ‘leaning’, or a ‘toss-up’. States where the difference between the two candidates is more than 10 percentage points are classified as ‘solid’, while those with a difference of less than 5 percentage points are classified as ‘toss-up’ states. If a state does not have any polling data or if its latest poll is more than 60 days old, we use the Cook Political Report Electoral College Ratings to categorise it. We consider Cook’s ‘likely’ and ‘lean’ states ‘leaning’ in our classification.

Most states use a ‘winner-takes-all’ method to allocate electoral college votes: the winner of the state’s popular vote receives all of its electoral votes. In Maine and Nebraska, however, the winner in each congressional district recieves one electoral vote and the statewide winner is awarded two electoral votes.

Polls collected byRealClearPolitics

Key presidential races calculator

Joe Biden and Donald Trump each need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. Most states are leaning or solidly in favour of one candidate, but in some states the race is too close to call. These toss-up states are ranked below, with the closest races shown first. Which way do you think they will vote?

Pick a presidential winner by selecting who you think will win each state
If the election were held today, Biden’s advantage in solid and leaning states suggests he can secure an electoral college majority without toss-up states, leaving Trump with a narrower path to victory.
Trump (136)
Biden (287)
Toss-up (115)
270 to win

Trump +0.2
North Carolina

Biden +0.5

Pennsylvania

Nebraska (District 2)

LEANING REPUBLICAN

LEANING DEMOCRAT

LEANING REPUBLICAN

LEANING REPUBLICAN

LEANING DEMOCRAT

LEANING DEMOCRAT
New Hampshire

LEANING DEMOCRAT

LEANING REPUBLICAN

LEANING REPUBLICAN
Maine (District 2)

LEANING DEMOCRAT

LEANING DEMOCRAT
Maine (Statewide)

LEANING DEMOCRAT